Question of the Month -
May 2005

Q: What are the latest SLC state projections for the federal Medicaid matching rates (Federal Medical Assistance Percentage or FMAP)?

 

A:

The federal Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) recently recently released personal income data that permits projections of the FMAP through FY 2007. Based on these numbers, nine states would receive increased FMAPs in FY 2007 but 30 would see decreases. Consequently, the Fys 2005-2007 FMAP declines are projected to cost state governments $1.1 billion in federal Medicaid and SCHIP grants in FY 2007.

The follow table illustrates this.
 

SLC State

Year and FMAP Percentage

Percentage Point Change

Total Potential Impacts ($millions)

Total

($millions)

2005

2006

2007

2005-2006

2006-2007

2002-2007

2006

2007

Alabama

70.83

69.51

68.31

-1.32

-1.20

-2.14

-$53,136

-$52,176

-$105,312

Arkansas

74.75

73.77

73.13

-0.98

-0.64

0.49

-$34,135

-$24,075

-$58,210

Florida

58.90

58.89

58.80

-0.01

-0.09

2.37

-$1,507

-$14,476

-$15,983

Georgia

60.44

60.60

61.79

0.16

1.19

2.79

$12,252

$98,456

$110,708

Kentucky

69.60

69.26

68.18

-0.34

-1.08

-1.76

-$15,849

-$54,359

-$70,208

Louisiana

71.04

69.79

68.66

-1.25

-1.13

-1.64

-$68,581

-$66,947

-$135,527

Maryland

50.00

50.00

50.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

$0

$0

$0

Mississippi

77.08

76.00

75.24

-1.08

-0.76

-0.85

-$42,977

-$32,654

-$75,631

Missouri

61.15

61.93

60.87

0.78

-1.06

-0.19

$59,292

-$87,033

-$27,740

North Carolina

63.63

63.49

64.17

-0.14

0.68

2.71

-$14,093

$73,909

$59,816

Oklahoma

70.18

67.91

67.62

-2.27

-0.29

-2.81

-$75,112

-$10,369

-$85,481

South Carolina

69.89

69.32

69.18

-0.57

-0.14

-0.16

-$23,946

-$6,344

-$30,290

Tennessee

64.81

63.99

63.01

-0.82

-0.98

-0.63

-$65,959

-$85,135

-$151,094

Texas

60.87

60.66

61.55

-0.21

0.89

1.38

-$40,980

$187,542

$146,562

Virginia

50.00

50.00

50.00

0.00

0.00

-1.45

$0

$0

$0

West Virginia

74.65

72.99

72.63

-1.66

-0.36

-2.64

-$36,722

-$8,599

-$45,321

 

 

 

 

Total (U.S.)

-$550,895

-$504,709

-$1,055,603

 

 

 

Source: Federal Funds Information for States

Notes:
(1) The FMAP percentage for 2007 is the projected.
(2) The total potential impact for 2007 assumes each state's Medicaid program will cost 8% more than the FY 2006 projected level.
(3) The potential impact is reflected in dollar thousands.