High school dropouts have been a concern
for state legislators for some time. In the 1990s, reports by the U.S.
Census Bureau indicated that the national high school graduation rate was
approaching 90 percent. Recent studies have punched holes in this
optimistic view on graduation rates, citing the inclusion of GED
certificates in the count of diplomas conferred and reporting bias in the
surveys used by the Census Bureau. Schools also often underreported
dropouts in order to avoid sanctions imposed by new accountability systems.
By comparing the graduation-age cohort
(17-year olds) against diplomas conferred, a very different picture arises,
with high school completion rates dropping to below 70 percent. Indeed,
five different researchers along with the National Center for Education
Statistics have all reached relatively similar—and discouraging—conclusions
about high school completion.
Recent research by the Educational
Testing Service (ETS) concludes that not only is the dropout rate
underreported, but that the situation has grown worse in most states between
1990 and 2000. According to ETS’s Paul Barton, Nationally, only seven
states reported positive change in high school completion rates, with the
national rate of completion slipping 2.4 percentage points from 72.0 percent
in 1990 to 69.6 in 2000. In the region, only Maryland and West Virginia
recorded positive changes in this rate. West Virginia is also notable for
having the highest high school graduation rate in the country. The table
below illustrates the change in high school completion rates for the region
between 1990 and 2000.
